At the moment, we've reached what is almost certainly the lowest point in the trough of activity that is solar minimum. How long this minimum will last is anybody's guess.
But can anyone make a prediction on the solar cycle that is something better than a guess? I'm not sure there is.
The key point of information for most of us is NOAA. I've noticed that it is either extremely slow or reluctant (or both) to issue regular updates on how the solar cycle is going. It can be years between one forecast update and another.
OK, this is not an easy science. It is trying to grapple with a semi-chaotic and complex system that always can catch us unaware.
But let's look at what NOAA has done in recently updating its solar cycle progression pages:
Now, I remember once being a key witness in a low-level criminal Court case. The defence asked me whether it was possible the defendant did not hear me tell him he had hit a house with his lorry. After a quick mental shuffle, I replied: 'I would have to concede anything is possible, but it is unlikely'. The defence sat down, irritated.
And so it is I find these very odd forecasts. The nice red trend lines predict that solar minimum is going to continue - and see ever-lower activity - until the end of 2023! That seems preposterous to anyone following the Sun in detail. Since at least early 2017, new cycle sunspots have been clearly seen, and more have been seen since. So, like in the Court case, whilst the outcome is possible, it is unlikely.
It seems to me that NOAA are simply moving the size and position of the goalposts, yielding no useful forecast at all.
Here's my prediction: we are now in the final stage of solar minimum and, by mid-2019, we will see clear signals that the trend is upwards in activity. Without warning or explanation, at around the same time, NOAA will simply change their red trend line.
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