Amateur Radio: A Perfect Storm Ahead?

Things aren't so good on the HF bands of late.  Approaching solar minimum, we're seeing few sunspots, yet seemingly endless geomagnetic storms.  Even 20m is often difficult at times.

Of course, ham radio is already in troubled waters because of its inability to reach out to and recruit youngsters, who are permanently attached to their cellphones, tablets and consoles.  With each passing year, the age profile of ham radio, at least in the UK - and by the RSGB's own admission - is increasing by the same amount. 

Add to that the sad fact that many of the hams now reaching the end of their lives used to be professionally involved in radio and electronics.  There is almost nobody to replace them.

Spotless.

Wind on the clock about 10-15 years, and a big decline in ham enthusiasts seems almost inevitable.

In tandem with this period, we have to take into account the suppression of interest in ham radio that a solar minimum is known to bring.  When propagation is poor, operators tend to 'take a break', sometimes never to return.

The problem for the next few solar cycles, according to the best 'twin dynamo' theory we have of the Sun, is that we may well have to endure 30 or so years of very low solar activity - a repeat of the 'Maunder Minimum' seen during the Middle Ages.

Here's a plot of how the Sun is likely to play out, together with modelling results that have clearly accurately reproduced what happened in past cycles, enhancing our confidence in future predictive power:

The end of solar activity - and ham radio?  Image courtesy Prof. Valentina Zharkova.

This really doesn't bode well for ham radio.  True, the lower bands of 7-1.8MHz will be less affected.  But these need longer antennas - space that the average UK Joe often doesn't have.  Whilst one Joe will find a way, others will decide it's too difficult, and not bother.

And as if that wasn't enough, the hobby is suffering from rapidly increasing spectrum noise, often arising from directly-imported Chinese goods of poor quality.  LED lights, TVs, electric fences, CCTV power supplies - they're all taking their toll, with very little in terms of enforcement activity taking place.


This is a bit like amateur astronomy, where magazines are stuffed full of expensive telescopes and accessories that imply all is well, but that just about nobody has a dark sky under which they can be put to best use.  What's the point of a $4000 rig when all you can hear is next door's solar PV system?

So, I think the likes of the ARRL and RSGB need to wake up - fast - to these three problems that really could see a whole generation fail to take an interest in amateur radio.  If that happens, it will probably be impossible to promote a resurgence of interest once the Sun shows a little more life.