Overnight WSPR report, 11-12/12/2018

Some moderate disturbances in the field locally early last evening, followed by a much weaker disturbance after midnight.  The disturbance saw a northerly swing in the Z component, which doesn't generally produce DX spots, which indeed was the case overnight.

Image: Tromso Geophysical Laboratory.

Mid-evening aurora forecast extending into northern UK skies.  Image: NOAA.

There was plenty of shorter-skip activity at 14MHz WSPR until around 23:30UT, and from then on, a couple of distant G stations, all courtesy of the enhanced auroral activity that took the southern limits of auroral visibility as far as Ireland and Wales. Sadly, it was completely cloudy here, so I couldn't groundtruth the forecast.

At 01:16UT, I heard OH5XO once, at -28dB SNR/2500Hz, and an SM station around 45 minutes later, followed by a series of spots of LA6GH between 03:22UT and 03:58UT, all around -26dB SNR/2500Hz.  The LA spots were probably related to the restoration of the field to quieter conditions.

And that was it until advancing-dawn propagation at 06:22UT, when I heard a couple of G stations, followed very shortly thereafter by HZ1SK, presumably all coming in on very low angle paths.

Reluctant advice

FT8 coding has changed.  We have all been told to change to the new WSJT-X version, which is not backwards-compatible with the older versions for FT8 and MSK (so you won't see decodes from those using the old code).

New version is meant to be the global standard as of December 10, 2018.  At the time of writing, only about 8% of FT8 signals on my waterfall are new code versions.

http://physics.princeton.edu/pulsar/K1JT/wsjtx.html

Solar cycle forecast update: hedging in the extreme?

I'm alwaysinterested in matters relating to the solar-terrestrial environment and, like many hams, keep an active eye on how that environment is changing.

At the moment, we've reached what is almost certainly the lowest point in the trough of activity that is solar minimum.  How long this minimum will last is anybody's guess.

But can anyone make a prediction on the solar cycle that is something better than a guess?  I'm not sure there is.

The key point of information for most of us is NOAA.  I've noticed that it is either extremely slow or reluctant (or both) to issue regular updates on how the solar cycle is going.  It can be years between one forecast update and another.

OK, this is not an easy science.  It is trying to grapple with a semi-chaotic and complex system that always can catch us unaware.

But let's look at what NOAA has done in recently updating its solar cycle progression pages:

Now, I remember once being a key witness in a low-level criminal Court case.  The defence asked me whether it was possible the defendant did not hear me tell him he had hit a house with his lorry.  After a quick mental shuffle, I replied: 'I would have to concede anything is possible, but it is unlikely'.  The defence sat down, irritated.

And so it is I find these very odd forecasts.  The nice red trend lines predict that solar minimum is going to continue - and see ever-lower activity - until the end of 2023!  That seems preposterous to anyone following the Sun in detail.   Since at least early 2017, new cycle sunspots have been clearly seen, and more have been seen since.  So, like in the Court case, whilst the outcome is possible, it is unlikely.

It seems to me that NOAA are simply moving the size and position of the goalposts, yielding no useful forecast at all.

Here's my prediction: we are now in the final stage of solar minimum and, by mid-2019, we will see clear signals that the trend is upwards in activity.  Without warning or explanation, at around the same time, NOAA will simply change their red trend line.

Overnight WSPR report, 09-10/12/2018

Very little to report, other than LU3DJ was still doing very well, last heard here at 22:30UT (-23dB SNR/2500Hz).

The only two sudden appearances were from ON7KO at 22:30UT and 01:24UT.  G0CCL also appeared from nowhere at 01:24UT.  Nothing was then heard until the pre-dawn period.

The mid-Europe field looked like this:

Image: Tromso Geophysical Laboratory.

The modelled aurora, zoomed in on Europe, at 22:30UT was:

 Image: NOAA.

With the auroral oval extending to the northern UK, I suppose it's no surprise that a couple of short skip signals came in, though one might have expected a few more.

The timing of the first ON7 spot coincides nicely with the peak of a sharp Z dip to the south, which leads me to think that precipitating electrons drifting across the pole from the day side were responsible.  The second, 01:24UT spot was probably a small patch of auroral E.

The amazing reach of LU3DJ

I was amazed at this series of spots yesterday (09/12/18) on 14MHz from LU3DJ, who was transmitting just 10mW.  The effect of the grey line also shows up very nicely:

Signal from LU3DJ, 10mW, as received by MW1CFN, vpol delta loop (twin fed).

Conditions at around peak signal (19:50UT) from LU3DJ.  DX Atlas, with permission.

AA7FV - unusual spot

There was another moderate geomagnetic field disturbance in the early evening last night, up to Kp=3.  Into the morning here, the ring current of the auroral oval was quite high, up at around 38GW.  I didn't receive any unusual spots (14MHz), other than one or two, very short skip signals from no further than PA/ON.

Interestingly, at 09:00UT (actually, also a little earlier, but the spot didn't make it to the database), I spotted AA7FV, who uses a large rhombic antenna with one of its two main lobes towards Europe.

This is another anomalous spot worth considering.  First, the first vestiges of an illuminated ionosphere lay 5500km to the east (over the southern tip of Greenland) of AA7FV at the time of my spotting him.

Conditions at the time of the spot of 09:00UT.  Note where the path crosses the greyline's start (astronomical twilight).  Image: DX Atlas, with permission.

Even when we consider the 'fuzziness' of what height we are considering in respect of the ionosphere, it's clear that AA7FV was well out of sight of it at the time.  This is more so the case, as there are hills lying very close by in the direction of Europe from AA7FV, reducing the possibility of the lowest propagation angles having an impact:

View from AA7FV's area towards Europe.  Image: Bing Maps.

I haven't spotted AA7FV under quiet geomagnetic conditions, so it's pretty clear that this spot is related to enhanced field activity.  This is the forecast model for the time:

The path from AA7FV to me thus took it well into the auroral zone.  It seems to be that free electrons were probably available in large numbers somewhere at the southern edge of the modelled aurora, such that AA7FV was in sight of them, allowing propagation.  It's still remarkable that the path is going through such apparently disturbed areas, yet still being decoded successfully here; WSPR is not particularly robust under varying propagation. 

SDR Receiving: taking it easy...

I've recently been taking an interest in listening for, rather than tranmsitting WSPR of late.  I find this is a nice way to 'keep the radio fire burning' whilst I get on with other things.  Often, there are fascinating and unusual spots to be heard.

But using my rigs is a little bit like using a hammer to break a nut: power hungry, not a very good use of expensive equipment, and rather heavy to carry around for /P work.

So, having spent a long time looking at various SDR possibilities, I finally settled on the SDRPlay RSP-1A.  At £89, I thought this was a much more sensible balance of cost and performance than going for the Airspy HF+ which, although it gets good reviews, is £229, or roughly half the price of a new Yaesu FT-450 rig.

I managed to get £4.50 knocked off the price at RadioWorld, just by searching online for a discount voucher.

We'll see how this 14-bit receiver does in comparison to rice box rigs at HF; it should arrive tomorrow, if I'm lucky.  Beyond that, I'm quite persuaded by those on WSPRnet who recommend the Red Pitaya.  At 349 Euro, that's quite a good deal.