Ham radio on the cheap, encouraging newcomers to the hobby, and a bit of science.
Tuesday, 18 December 2018
Solar Cycle 25: stronger than 24?
The plot below leads us nicely into a prediction by Indian researchers in Nature Communications that the next solar cycle could be somewhat stronger than the previous.
This prediction shows that we are not in the minimum yet (simulated) however from the observed line it is uncertain. Personally I hope that this and next year we are in the minimum and it is only going up. This prediction is just a uncertain as next weeks weather actually. But it is a nice guess, you have to stay positive! :-). 73, Bas
Yes, but note how the point of 'most minimum' is occuring in the same place in both observed and modelled lines. I think the most important news is that cycle 25 does not seem to be destined for a crash, or the much-predicted Grand Minimum.
I was under the impression that the Belgian Observatory stated that the minimum was May 2018 ! ach.... ah well. The only way is up, I mean, it can't get any worse....can it?
Yes, that's right Darren! The trouble with the minimum is that you don't know when it was until some months after it happened. So the Belgians may have been more-or-less right, or not! I suspect the cycle will swing upwards slightly as of this summer. But no bets!
This prediction shows that we are not in the minimum yet (simulated) however from the observed line it is uncertain. Personally I hope that this and next year we are in the minimum and it is only going up. This prediction is just a uncertain as next weeks weather actually. But it is a nice guess, you have to stay positive! :-). 73, Bas
ReplyDeleteYes, but note how the point of 'most minimum' is occuring in the same place in both observed and modelled lines. I think the most important news is that cycle 25 does not seem to be destined for a crash, or the much-predicted Grand Minimum.
DeleteI was under the impression that the Belgian Observatory stated that the minimum was May 2018 ! ach.... ah well. The only way is up, I mean, it can't get any worse....can it?
ReplyDeleteYes, that's right Darren! The trouble with the minimum is that you don't know when it was until some months after it happened. So the Belgians may have been more-or-less right, or not! I suspect the cycle will swing upwards slightly as of this summer. But no bets!
Delete