12 Metres - Not as Predicted.

I've never been a fan of propagation predictions. For one thing, they hardly ever seem to be correct.  Then, there's the fact that published predictions in the likes of RadCom and QST are often entirely unable to account for the minute-by-minute vagaries of the Sun.

Despite this, predictions continue to be published and, indeed, given considerable prominence in magazines and online services alike.

A very good example of propagation prediction is PREDTEST.  Another, and perhaps the best in terms of accuracy, is VOACAP.

The 12m band is as lively as the garden this summer!

Now, if PREDTEST is to be believed, I shouldn't have been able to work well into the midwest of the US last evening on 12m, nor into Brazil.  Yet, for weeks now, 12m has been very busy on digital modes, and some are even giving SSB a go.  VOACAP has a much better stab at it, and gives a clear indication that giving 12m a go would be worthwhile.  Indeed, those with a beam in the US were managing -01 dB S/N reports both ways last evening, so this isn't a weak set of events. 

Now, having invested in a tower and 3-ele LFA Yagi some years ago for 12m, the question of band openness at 24MHz is a rather important one for me.

Not a good forecast.  If you believe any of it...

Whilst I wouldn't put a large bet on the UK-US path being a reliable circuit again today,  I will put my bottom dollar on the band being open to Europe and Russia by this morning's coffee time.


I admire those that try to tame nature by getting ahead of the game and predicting how the bands will turn out on any given day.  But the really good DX often comes in by switching on, finding a 'dead' band, and sending CQ with some persistence.  Soon enough, someone far away will send a response.