K1ZZ - Parting Shot

David Sumner, K1ZZ and the ARRL's outgoing President, has issued his valedictory article in this (May 2016's) QST magazine.

I was really very glad indeed to see that David has the honesty to confront - and challenge - members about the elephant in the room of amateur radio - old age.

Hardly a spring chicken himself, K1ZZ nevertheless recognises an ageing ham population is bad news.  Image: ARRL.

This is a problem that is certainly recognised by most ham societies across at least the western world.  The RSGB, though, has written to me on more than one occasion, asserting that the reason there is a severe age skew is not because there are no youngsters taking an interest, but that the older age groups represent the stage in life when one takes an interest in ham radio.

This could be reassuring, were it not for the certain knowledge that the post-WW2 'Baby Boomers' are reaching the end of their lives.  Birth rates have declined considerably during these folk's tenure on the planet.

This could indicate a problem for ham radio, because it's from 40 years on that people start to take an interest.  Now it looks as though there will be far fewer of them in coming decades, despite a slight increase in the naughties birth rate - something that will probably have been cut back to size by the very poor economic conditions since 2008/9 that also look set to continue for many years yet.

So it seems, to quote one frank and rare admission by the RSGB in 2013, that, over each ten year period, the age profile of ham radio in the UK gets older by ten years.  So the later view taken by the RSGB - that the age skew is simply indicative of 'boring middle age man syndrome', is entirely contradicted by that admission that the age profile is getting ever-more skewed. 

K1ZZ, then, is absolutely right to make the ageing profile of amateur radio the topic of his valedictory text.  After all, if we are failing to attract members from younger age groups, it may well be that the decline in participants seen over the past few years will continue on a slow but certain slide.  Even in the best situation, where older men continue to take up the hobby as they reach that stage in life, there will certainly be fewer of them.

Whilst I can't verify the accuracy of Google's search trends site, the number of people searching online for ham-related terms like 'ham radio' has been on a steep slide over the past decade - it's down to just a quarter of the monthly search enquiry volumes of ten years ago.  One does have to use that data with great caution, but it might add concern to the argument.

Other factors I see as very problematic for ham radio in the coming years are:

(1) fewer people in the professional electronics/broadcasting industries that foster a 'busman's holiday' interest in ham radio.

(2) as a result of (1), fewer kids, friends and relatives are exposed to the concept and practice of radio.

(3) radio is no longer a primary means of receiving information about the outside world.  It was very important to me, just 35 years ago.  Kids no longer pick up a SW receiver to play with in bed.  Most radios on sale aren't even SW-capable.  Digital radio is making this worse.

(4) consumer electronics are demanding increasing amounts of time, relegting ham radio to irrelevance.

(5) computer-based commnication may lead to less confidence in 'real' conversational skills - witness the few who want to engage in a ragchew these days.

(6) societies that are dominated by older folk, leading to a dangerous disconnection with younger people's interests.  Arguably, this is already happening.