Effort - or a complete lack of it!

Last autumn, I thought I might have a go at some 2m digital work.  The aim was to have an outsider's attempt at crossing the Atlantic.

Already, I've managed a FT8 QSO ith D4, using just a three-element beam and ~50W initially.  That makes my investment in the IC-746 worthwhile, on its own.

Beaming North America.  But is there anybody there to hear or be heard?

But the transatlantic stuff is really very curious.  Indeed, it is very disappointing for the almost complete lack of effort people are making.

The now regular exchanges between D4 and mainland Europe happen because, mainly, the D4 contest group is making a big effort to be on the air as much as they reasonably can.  If they won a prize of any sort, I think we'd all say 'yes, and well deserved, too'.

So, what about the effort made by US operators?  Here is a plot, taken this morning, of what I see, pretty much day in, day out:

The Japanese, ever-hopeful, are making a valiant effort, as are many European stations. OK, they may not all be chasing DX, but at least they are there, being active. Yes, more FT8 will appear in the US as the day wears on, but they never reach large numbers, and almost all are not in a position, anyway, to be likely to make a transatlantic crossing, which ideally needs a far shorter path.

Indeed, there are no monitoring stations currently active in the US, despite the fact that, right now, we are already in a peak of Es occurrence, at least so far as EU-based data is concerned:

Those few in the US who are interested in the Brendan Prize - or simply in the joy of making the transatlantic contest, regardless of any prize on offer - tell me that they prefer JT65A or B.  This is sensible, because it's considerably more sensitive than FT8 and, one could argue, somewhat more likely to be heard by chance due to its nearly 1-minute long transmission period.

So, how many people are listening for JT65 today?

One guy in Australia - listening on 129 MHz (a second JT65 station later appeared deep in the US, unlikely ever to make a transatlantic crossing, and probably not even trying to).


I've come to thinking that people are basing their decision on whether or not to be active on 2m DX on the tropo maps available online.  Of course, tropo propagation is only one mechanism, and Es is the other, probably much more important mechanism for this particular path.  

So, with this kind of non-effort going on, I don't expect the Brendan Prize to be snapped up through a mainland Europe - US (or Canada) QSO!